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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 86

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to DEN 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to DEN 40 for 3 yards (24-B.St-Juste; 33-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.74 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 86, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 44, worth -2.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model