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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 59

Denver Broncos 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to LAC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.54 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model