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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 43

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 28-H.Haskins right end to DEN 40 for 3 yards (21-R.Moss; 9-T.Hufanga).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.91 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model