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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 73

Denver Broncos 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 36 yards to LAC 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.00 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model