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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DEN 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.41 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model