Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 54

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 10

(6:54) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to DEN 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.82 EP
70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 54, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model