Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 69

Denver Broncos 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

(10:38) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to LAC 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 27 for 11 yards (46-A.Prentice; 40-J.Strnad).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.41 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model