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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to DEN 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.73 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 28, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP