Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to KC 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 24-B.Smith pushed ob at KC 20 for 11 yards (44-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on KC, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.29 EP
73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -2.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model