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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 18

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.94 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP