Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 98

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(8:38) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to KC 46, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 24-B.Smith ran ob at KC 46 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -3.95 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.60 EP
67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 98, worth -6.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model