4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 11 – Kansas City Chiefs 12

What Actually Happened

(:13) 8-D.Carlson 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +0.74 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model