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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 23

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 11

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +2.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model