Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 79

Las Vegas Raiders 11 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

(2:36) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to KC 23, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 24-B.Smith pushed ob at KC 26 for 3 yards (44-T.Eichenberg).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.18 EP
72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 79, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model