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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 18 at the 29

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 11

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.82 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model