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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 54

Las Vegas Raiders 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to KC 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 24-B.Smith to KC 6 for -1 yards (4-S.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.21 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 54, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model