Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 9

(10:28) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to LV 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.91 EP
61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model