Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 80

Las Vegas Raiders 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

(11:31) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to KC 27, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.28 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model