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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 47

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to LV 5, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 4.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.45 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model