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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 80

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 9

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to LV 21, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman pushed ob at LV 21 for no gain (2-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.40 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model