4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 37

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 8-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.22 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model