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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 22

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.11 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model