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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 53

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 72-C.Godrick and 66-M.Caliendo reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (96-J.Laulu).

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.66 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 53, worth -3.05 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model