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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 27

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 70-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 2-A.Jeanty left tackle to KC 28 for -1 yards (32-N.Bolton).

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.45 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model