4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 5

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 8-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.10 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 5, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP