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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to KC 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 24-B.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.17 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model