Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

(6:27) 14-M.Araiza punts 49 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman to LV 12 for no gain (13-N.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.14 EP
58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model