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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 14

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 8-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.31 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP