Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 69

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(13:06) 14-M.Araiza punts 41 yards to LV 28, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman to LV 42 for 14 yards (40-E.Downs; 59-C.McDonald).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.09 EP
70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model