Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

(12:38) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-I.Pola-Mao. 20-I.Pola-Mao right guard to LV 36 for 3 yards (12-J.Wiley).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

What Happened

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.17 EP
53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model