Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 74

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(13:41) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to LV 16, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-A.Bachman to LV 27 for 11 yards (59-C.McDonald).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.16 EP
53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model