4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 32

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(:39) 10-B.Grupe 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.89 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP