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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 30

Houston Texans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 15-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.55 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model