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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 25

Houston Texans 29 – Indianapolis Colts 30

What Actually Happened

(:17) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +0.96 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model