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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 4

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Houston Texans 29

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 10-B.Grupe 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.03 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 4, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP