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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 25

Houston Texans 26 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.41 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP