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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 53

Houston Texans 26 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to IND 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.93 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model