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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 24

Houston Texans 23 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.02 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model