Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Houston Texans 23

(10:31) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-J.Noel to HOU 29 for 6 yards (91-J.Tuimoloau; 59-B.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.32 EP
51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model