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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 52

Houston Texans 23 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to IND 9, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 2-J.Downs to IND 22 for 13 yards (87-C.Stover).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.07 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 52, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model