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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 11

Houston Texans 20 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.07 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model