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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 41

Houston Texans 20 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 6-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to IND 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 2-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.79 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP