Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 62

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin. PENALTY on IND-16-A.Dulin, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.20 EP
62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model