4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 56 yards to MIN 22, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 82-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.77 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 78, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.18 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 35, worth -2.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP