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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 59

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(:51) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to GB 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-13-T.Felton.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.48 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP