Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

(4:10) 19-D.Whelan punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model