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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 78

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to GB 30, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-26-T.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.12 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP