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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 5

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(:01) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +4.03 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 5, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth +0.02 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model