Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 64

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

(9:14) 19-D.Whelan punts 62 yards to MIN 2, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-16-B.Melton.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.96 EP
62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 64, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model