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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 19

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 16-W.Reichard 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.35 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model